As foreign money pulls out, domestic investors continue to pour into near-record valuations. The risk of staying invested in an expensive market is rising, what should investors do?

In the past 20 years, the Nifty 50 has returned 12% annually. Smart investors believe Indian markets can do far better than this in the coming decade. But markets are cyclical in nature. There is a high chance we may actually get lower annual returns compared to the past.

US Markets Outlook - 2025.

My annual ritual: 10 points on how I see the US & Global markets shaping up next year.

India Market Outlook - 2025

10 points on how I see the India Markets shaping up in 2025 & beyond.

As the West today grapples with a demographic decline, India is at the cusp of once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend opportunity. The country’s largest population cohort is entering their 30s and the spending binge has just started. Here’s why there is no stopping this economic engine now.

SIP series - Part-3: In the last part, I highlight the macro issues that may surface. If SIP projections are to work as planned, these challenges have to be mitigated. The second part of the series evaluated the psychological traps that deceive investors from fair evaluation of SIP investments.

SIP series - Part 2: The second of the three part series highlights the pitfalls of passive investing style associated with systematic investment plans. It analyses whether SIPs have potential going forward.

SIP series - Part 1: Retail investors are chasing high markets through systematic investment plans (SIPs). However, recent data indicates that this will not end well because expensive markets always lead to lower returns.

Is a 12% CAGR from Nifty50 pessimistic? No, it’s not. Market valuations in India are already stretched, and new wealth creators are needed to beat the benchmarks consistently. Excess liquidity and record high fund flows will only make markets more expensive, thereby moderating future returns.

After witnessing growth spikes of 8%-plus in 2015-16, India is now averaging at 6% or below. While the slowdown is the result of larger forces at play within the global economy, to stand out India must make extraordinary efforts, like China, OECD nations, and Asian tigers have taken in the past. Can India surpass China on the global stage?

The best decade to own stocks with 35% CAGR returns ended in 1991, says data. However, this is not unusual as most easy pickings on valuation are made at early stages. The next best decade was 2001-2011, yielding 20% CAGR but this was accompanied with many years of double-digit inflation. Can India attain 8%-plus growth rates again?